Did West Virginia Sound the Big East’s Death Knell?

Overview

In 1979, the Big East Conference was formed, with Georgetown, Providence, St. John’s, and Syracuse joining up with Boston College, Connecticut, Holy Cross, and Seton Hall to form a basketball-minded conference.

1991 saw the rise of the Big East, for football, with Miami (FL), Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Temple, Virginia Tech, and West Virginia joining up with Syracuse and Boston College, eight members.

The conference landscapes changed in 2004, with Connecticut playing football and Miami (FL) and Virginia Tech leaving for the ACC, leaving the conference with seven members.

2005 was a sea change year for the Big East, with Louisville, South Florida, and Cincinnati joined the conference, Boston College left for the ACC, and Temple was asked to leave the conference, bringing the conference back to eight teams. The Big East seemed, for once, to be a stable conference.

With the 2010 realignment occurring, the Big East decided to jump in and benefit, hoping to add the Dallas-Fort Worth media market by inviting TCU to join (bringing the total to nine teams).  Since that time, everything has been in free fall for the Big East, TCU changed its mind and decided to join the Big 12 (decreasing the proposed total back to eight) and Syracuse and Pittsburgh announced intentions to depart, having been accepted into the ACC (decreasing proposed total to six). Today, West Virginia announced intentions to leave the Big East and join the Big 12 (decreasing proposed total to five).

The Take

College football enthusiasts and conference realignment fans alike have wondered when the collapse of the Big East would occur. It occurs with West Virginia leaving the Big East. The Big East is now in talks to merge with Conference USA and Mountain West to create a super conference of 28 to 32 teams in hopes of maintaining a BCS bid.

Face it, Big East fans, your conference is done; toast. It will continue to be a viable basketball conference, because even with the aforementioned subtractions, the basketball conference can survive, due to the pure depth of the league. Boise State expressed concerns about conference stability, Navy, Air Force, Houston, SMU, Temple, and Villanova were also mentioned. Outside of bringing in more rivalries, only the Pennsylvania schools and Navy are remotely located in the confines of the Big East. Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Rutgers and South Florida are now left scrambling .

Adding more schools will not ensure a BCS bid. ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, PAC-12, and SEC will continue to have BCS bowl bids. There is no reason to believe those conferences can’t continue to supply at least five of the 10 BCS bowl bids, with half of the bids being at large teams. Further, there is no reason to add an additional BCS conference – other potential conferences, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt, and WAC do not warrant BCS level attention. A combined Conference USA/Mountain West/Big East wouldn’t, either.

The Plan?

The UNLV athletic director, Jim Livengood, envisioned a plan of four divisions of seven teams each, with a playoff then a conference championship to arrive at an automatic qualifier. Having more teams than two BCS conferences combined shouldn’t give you an automatic BCS bid, but alright, whatever, we’ll go with what he says as a basis for discussion. First, let’s figure out which teams Mr. Livengood means, when he says 28:

Mountain West (10): Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State*, Hawaii*, Nevada*, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV, and Wyoming.

Conference USA (12): East Carolina, Houston, Marshall, Memphis, Rice, SMU, Southern Miss, Tulane, Tulsa, UAB, UCF, and UTEP.

Big East (5): Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Rutgers, and South Florida.

* Currently WAC members.

So that’s 27, assuming no one departs. The other team to bring it to 28? My guess is Navy. Some WAC members are also being mentioned for a 32 team proposal, that is Louisiana Tech, San Jose State, and Utah State. Temple appears to be the other team, in a 32 team proposal.

Assuming there are 28 teams, like Mr. Livengood says, I venture a Big East/Conference USA/Mountain West proposal looks like this* (with the distance in miles between divisional opponents listed):

Far West	Boise State	Fresno State	Hawaii	Nevada	New Mexico	San Diego State	UNLV
Boise State	—	505	2836	337	780	748	522
Fresno State	505	—	2520	188	745	316	269
Hawaii	2836	2520	—	2569	3231	2617	2768
Nevada	337	188	2569	—	788	490	355
New Mexico	780	745	3231	788	—	623	477
San Diego State	748	316	2617	490	623	—	257
UNLV	522	269	2768	355	477	257	—

Mountain West	Air Force	Colorado State	Houston	Rice	SMU	UTEP	Wyoming
Air Force	—	109	838	836	620	507	164
Colorado State	109	—	929	928	706	611	56
Houston	838	929	—	4	231	678	983
Rice	836	928	4	—	230	675	982
SMU	620	706	231	230	—	574	759
UTEP	507	611	678	675	574	—	660
Wyoming	164	56	983	982	759	660	—

Conference USA	Memphis	Southern Miss	South Florida	Tulane	Tulsa	UAB	UCF
Memphis	—	264	660	356	343	211	684
Southern Miss	264	—	471	105	505	209	523
South Florida	660	471	—	479	967	460	91
Tulane	356	105	479	—	546	311	544
Tulsa	343	505	967	546	—	548	1005
UAB	211	209	460	311	548	—	476
UCF	684	523	91	544	1005	476	—

Big East	Cincinnati	Connecticut	East Carolina	Louisville	Marshall	Navy	Rutgers
Cincinnati	—	652	463	93	123	431	543
Connecticut	652	—	496	738	568	281	129
East Carolina	463	496	—	498	341	238	374
Louisville	93	738	498	—	182	503	625
Marshall	123	568	341	182	—	322	449
Navy	431	281	238	503	322	—	151
Rutgers	543	129	374	625	449	151	—

* I’m using each of the conference names as a division and Far West for the remaining division.

Far West Rivalries

Boise State/Fresno State – Battle for the Milk Can

Boise State/Hawaii

Boise State/Nevada

Fresno State/Hawaii – Golden Screwdriver

Nevada/UNLV – Battle for Nevada

Mountain West Rivalries

Air Force/Colorado State  – Ram/Falcon Trophy

Colorado State/Wyoming – Border War

Houston/Rice – Bayou Bucket

Rice/SMU – Battle for the Mayor’s Cup

Mountain West Rivalries

Memphis/UAB – Battle for the Bones

Memphis/Southern Miss – Black and Blue Bowl

Southern Miss/Tulane – Battle for the Bell

South Florida/UCF – The War on I-4

Big East Rivalries

Cincinnati/Louisville – Battle for the Keg of Nails

Navy/Rutgers

The setup would also lend itself to bringing back in Rice, SMU, Tulsa, and UTEP, after those teams left the WAC (and Boise State, Fresno State, Hawaii, and Nevada) in 2005.

Average wins for division, by year

Far West	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	Average
Boise State	9	13	10	12	14	12	11.67
Fresno State	8	4	9	7	8	8	7.33
Hawaii	5	11	12	7	6	10	8.50
Nevada	9	8	6	7	8	13	8.50
New Mexico	6	6	9	4	1	1	4.50
San Diego State	5	3	4	2	4	9	4.50
UNLV	2	2	2	5	5	2	3.00
By year	6.29	6.71	7.43	6.29	6.57	7.86

Mountain West	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	Average
Air Force	4	4	9	8	8	9	7.00
Colorado State	6	4	3	7	3	3	4.33
Houston	6	10	8	8	10	5	7.83
Rice	1	7	3	10	2	4	4.50
SMU	5	6	1	1	8	7	4.67
UTEP	8	5	4	5	4	6	5.33
Wyoming	4	6	5	4	7	3	4.83
By year	4.86	6.00	4.71	6.14	6.00	5.29

Conference USA	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	Average
Memphis	7	2	7	6	2	1	4.17
Southern Miss	7	9	7	7	7	8	7.50
South Florida	6	9	9	8	8	8	8.00
Tulane	2	4	4	2	3	4	3.17
Tulsa	9	8	10	11	5	10	8.83
UAB	5	3	2	4	5	4	3.83
UCF	8	4	10	4	8	11	7.50
By year	6.29	5.57	7.00	6.00	5.43	6.57

Big East	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	Average
Cincinnati	4	8	10	11	12	4	8.17
Connecticut	5	4	9	8	8	8	7.00
East Carolina	5	7	8	9	9	6	7.33
Louisville	9	12	6	5	4	7	7.17
Marshall	4	5	3	4	7	5	4.67
Navy	8	9	8	8	10	9	8.67
Rutgers	7	11	8	8	9	4	7.83
By year	6.00	8.00	7.43	7.57	8.43	6.14

Rank of Teams by Average Wins

Rank	Team	Division	Average Wins
1	Boise State	Far West	11.67
2	Tulsa	Conference USA	8.83
3	Navy	Big East	8.67
4	Hawaii	Far West	8.50
5	Nevada	Far West	8.50
6	Cincinnati	Big East	8.17
7	South Florida	Conference USA	8.00
8	Houston	Mountain West	7.83
9	Rutgers	Big East	7.83
10	Southern Miss	Conference USA	7.50
11	UCF	Conference USA	7.50
12	Fresno State	Far West	7.33
13	East Carolina	Big East	7.33
14	Louisville	Big East	7.17
15	Air Force	Mountain West	7.00
16	Connecticut	Big East	7.00
17	UTEP	Mountain West	5.33
18	Wyoming	Mountain West	4.83
19	SMU	Mountain West	4.67
20	Marshall	Big East	4.67
21	New Mexico	Far West	4.50
22	San Diego State	Far West	4.50
23	Rice	Mountain West	4.50
24	Colorado State	Mountain West	4.33
25	Memphis	Conference USA	4.17
26	UAB	Conference USA	3.83
27	Tulane	Conference USA	3.17
28	UNLV	Far West	3.00
	Average Wins		6.44
		Far West	13.14285714
		Mountain West	17.71428571
		Conference USA	15.42857143
		Big East	11.57142857

Overall, the divisions would be relatively equal, with the Big East edging out the Far West for the most competitive. The Mountain West and Conference USA have high ranking teams, but are brought down by at least two lower ranked teams.

Summary

A combination of three conferences into one probably doesn’t make the most sense, especially from a logistically and travel standpoint, let alone from an BCS automatic bid standpoint. But it is workable, and would create competitive divisions, preserve rivalries, and set up a unique playoff style format for a conference champion. Ultimately, this conference set up will likely lead to a conference split into two conferences, similar to the Mountain West/WAC split in 1999.