Simming the NCAA: Week 8-2012

By: legallymaize

NCAA called last week’s LSU win, but otherwise it wasn’t too close. Both quarterbacks were overestimated, Mettenberger very much so, and Lattimore’s rough day was about the only accurate call other than the end result. Had LSU been better in the red zone, however, the prediction might have fared better. The sim also called Notre Dame over Stanford, although it was a much closer game than predicted. Stanford was held out of the endzone, and and the offensive predictions, outside of Wood, weren’t too good.

In the most lopsided result of the day, NCAA did a good job with everything except the score. The offensive stats were pretty close (especially when Ash and McCoy are combined), and it was really the Sooner’s depth (read: Blake Bell’s 4(!) rushing touchdowns) that turned this into a blowout.

Finally, NCAA was decent on the Michigan game. Despite a big score different Denard’s passing was actually overestimated, but made up for in the rushing game. The Illini performance was really where things went off the rails, most notably with the passing yardage. Props to have to be given to the sim, however, as even though it didn’t make it into the summary, it correctly pegged Gallon with 1 reception for a long touchdown on a screen pass.

Now on to this week’s games:

#9 South Carolina @ #3 FLorida

Team    1st        2nd      3rd       4th       Final
USC        0            0         0          0           0
FLA       14           14        0          0          28


USC:    C. Shaw 20/31, 203 yds, 0 td
M. Lattimore 12 car, 43 yds
D. Byrd 5 rec, 58 yds

FLA:  J. Driskel 17/24, 247 yds, 4 td
M. Gillislee 18 car, 70 yds
F. Hammond 5 rec, 77 yds, 3 td

NCAA says shutout in the Swamp. Florida rides four first half passing touchdowns-three to Hammond-to a 28 point margin of victory. Despite an efficient day through the air for Shaw, the Gamecocks couldn’t put it in the endzone. I like South Carolina here, but the sim thinks differently.

#4 Kansas State @ #17 West Virginia

Team    1st        2nd      3rd       4th       Final
KSU         0          7         0          7          14
WVU        7          0         3         14          24


KSU:    C. Klein 16/24, 212 yds, 0 td, 1 int
J. Hubert 16 car, 67 yds
T. Thompson 6 rec, 95 yds

WVU:    G. Smith 22/36, 291 yds, 1 td
S. Alston 21 car, 43 yds, 2 td
T. Austin 5 rec, 118 yds

West Virginia looks to bounce back from an unexpected and utter annialation at the hand of Texas Tech. Kansas State come in riding high, but leaves Morgantown with a loss. I have to believe the game will be much higher scoring. The Mountaineers have proven that they can’t stop anyone, but they should also put up more than 14 on Kansas State. Last week was a fluke, right? I still like West Virginia to come out on top, although in a shootout.

#6 LSU @  #20 Texas A&M

Team    1st        2nd      3rd       4th       Final
LSU       14           0         7           7         28
TAM       7           14         7          7         35


LSU: Z. Mettenberger 26/41, 342 yds, 3 td, 2 td
S. Ware 25 car, 106 yds, 1 td
O. Beckham 10 rec, 189 yds

TAM: J. Manziel 18/33, 351 yds, 4 td, 1 int
C. Michael 14 car, 55 yds, 1 td; 3 rec, 35 yds, 1 td
M. Evans 6 rec, 125 yds, 2 td

Texas A&M has had a great start to their first year in the SEC, but they get their biggest test yet as LSU comes into Kyle Field, fresh off an upset of previously unbeaten South Carolina. NCAA says the Aggies get their second straight win over Louisiana teams. A huge day from Manziel leads A&M to a shootout victory, although Metterberger kept LSU in it until the end. I’m not sure how to feel about this. Metterberger has been struggling mightily lately, although a suspect Aggie defense might be just what he needs to get out of his funk. On the other end, LSU’s pass defense has been outstanding, and I have a hard time seeing them give up the yards and points predicted. Overall, I like LSU to take this one.

Michigan State @ #23 Michigan

Team    1st        2nd      3rd       4th       Final
MSU       7          7           0          0         14
MICH      0          7           7          7         21


MSU:  A. Maxwell 11/32, 205 yds, 2 td, 2 int
L. Bell 22 car, 82 yds
A. Burbridge 2 rec, 66 yds, 1 td

MICH:   D. Robinson 19/30, 181 yds, 2 td
F. Toussaint 35 car, 139 yds, 1 td
R. Roundtree 6 rec, 86 yds, 1 td

Sparty comes limping into the Big House, as Michigan looks to end their four game skid in the rivalry. Once looked to as a marquee matchup, Michigan State is barely over .500 and playing with an utterly anemic offense. NCAA says they do score some touchdowns, something that Michigan hasn’t allowed in over six quarters, but it isn’t enough as the Wolverines pull out the win. A good day from Robinson through the air and Toussaint on the ground pace Michigan.


One response

  1. Pingback: New Content Added: Week of October 14th « Before Visiting The Sportsbook

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