Simming the NCAA: Week 6-2012

By: legallymaize

We’re back this year to provide NCAA simulations on some of the marquee or otherwise interesting games each week. Although certainly not gospel, this gives an alternative, seemingly neutral insight into how each game might go, simulating the game play through the Super Sim feature.   Last week Georgia did indeed prevail over Tennessee by a touchdown, although it was a much higher scoring affair than anyone realized. NCAA wasn’t too far off, although it whiffed on Murray’s touchdowns and the big day on the ground from both teams.

West Virginia also prevailed over Baylor by 7 points, except they did so in a basketball game. The sim was off by about an order of three, and that’s all that can really be said.

Oklahoma State put up more of a fight than NCAA predicted, but Texas did pull out the road win. Ash’s big day was called, and while Lunt didn’t end up playing, Walsh filled in admirably, aided by a monster day from Randle.

I was skeptical of the sim calling a Spartan win, and my intuition served me right. Miller underperformed and Maxwell overperformed, but Bell’s rough day day was accurate and the Buckeye’s held on for the win.

Finally, NCAA rightly called the Badger’s big first half and Nebraska’s second half rally, although the deficit was bigger and final score much closer. Stave actually underperformed, but was picked up by three Ball touchdowns. On the other side, Martinez had a big day rushing and passing to propel the Huskers to victory.

Now on to this week’s games:

#4 LSU @ #10 Florida

Team    1st        2nd      3rd       4th       Final
LSU       3           14         7          3          27
FLA       7            7          3          7          24


LSU: Z. Mettenberger 16/33, 239 yds, 3 td
K. Hilliard 27 car, 97 yds
R. Shepard 3 rec, 65 yds

FLA:  J. Driskel 19/37, 243 yds, 0 td, 2 int
M. Gillislee 11 car, 28 yds, 2 td; 4 rec, 28 yds
F. Hammond 6 rec, 85 yds   NCAA says LSU wins close.

The Tigers certainly haven’t been playing well of late, but I haven’t lost faith. I have a feeling the stats won’t be so ugly, at least for LSU, but at the end of the day the sim still says the Tigers will cover in the Swamp.

#5 Georgia @ #6 South Carolina

Team    1st        2nd      3rd       4th       Final
UGA        0         17         7          3          27
USC        0          0          0          8          8


UGA:  A. Murray 21/29, 251 yds, 3 td
K. Malcolm 33 car, 137 yds
T. King 6 rec, 93 yds, 1 td

USC:    C. Shaw 16/28, 178 yds, 1 td
M. Lattimore 18 car, 40 yds
D. Byrd 6 rec, 88 yds

I’ve been waiting for South Carolina to get exposed, and NCAA says this is finally the game. Georgia pitched a shutout into the fourth, and an efficient day from Aaron Murray led the Bulldogs to a comfortable win. The Gamecock offense never got going, especially Lattimore who had an ugly day.

#8 West Virginia @  #11 Texas

Team    1st        2nd      3rd       4th       Final
WVU      0          10         0           7         17
TEX       3           7          6          13         29


WVU:    G. Smith 27/41, 332 yds, 2 td, 2 int
S. Alston 7 car, 26 yds
T. Austin 5 rec, 99 yds, 2 td

TEX:    D. Ash 22/32, 300 yds, 2 td
M. Brown 28 car, 97 yds, 1 td; 2 rec, 20 yds, 1 td
M. Davis 8 rec, 128 yds, 1 td

Similar to last week, I have a feeling this game will be much higher scoring. Still, NCAA predicts a big day through the air with a combined 632 yards, but I feel like there will be more touchdowns to show for it. I can see the running game having a tougher go this week, at least for the Mountaineers, and NCAA predicts 2 interceptions for Smith, which would be a change of pace.

#21 Nebraska @ #12 Ohio State

Team    1st        2nd      3rd       4th       Final
NEB       7           3         14         0          24
OSU       0           0         0           6          6


NEB:      T. Martinez 15/28, 192 yds, 1 td, 1 int; 14 car, 81 yds
R. Burkhead 31 car, 118 yds, 2 td
K. Bell 5 rec, 63 yds

OSU:   B. Miller 8/24, 108 yds, 1 td
J. Hall 15 car, 41 yds
D. Smith 2 rec, 35 yds

Nebraska passed it’s first B1G test last week, and the schedule doesn’t let up with a trip to the Shoe. NCAA says it’s all Nebraska, with another big day from Martinez being aided by the Husker defense. The sim has the Buckeye offense getting shut down.

Michigan @ Purdue

Team    1st        2nd      3rd       4th       Final
MICH       7          0          3         0          10
PUR       10         13         3         14         40


MICH:   D. Robinson 17/34, 254 yds, 1 td, 1 int
F. Toussaint 24 car, 107 yds
D. Gardner 7 rec, 117 yds

PUR:      C. TerBush 18/26, 340 yds, 2 td
A. Shavers 17 car, 136 yds, 2 td
A. Edison 5 rec, 167 yds, 1 td

According to NCAA, the Boilermakers got going with an 80 yard touchdown on the first play of the game and never looked back. Michigan was 1 for 4 in the redzone, and failed to take advantage of a decent offensive day while giving up over 500 yards on defense. I think Michigan wins, and really have nothing else to say about this except I think (and hope) it’s 180 degrees off.


One response

  1. Pingback: New Content Added: Week of September 30th « Before Visiting The Sportsbook

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