Simming the NCAA: Week 5-2012

By: legallymaize

We’re back this year to provide NCAA simulations on some of the marquee or otherwise interesting games each week. Although certainly not gospel, this gives an alternative, seemingly neutral insight into how each game might go, simulating the game play through the Super Sim feature.   Last week wasn’t the greatest for NCAA, but in some cases it appeared worse than it did. The big whiff in the Arizona-Oregon game was Arizona’s offense, which not only did nothing positive, but gave the Oregon defense two pick sixes. The predictions for Oregon’s offense were decent; it was Arizona’s points given to Oregon that turned this so lopsided.

Clemson-Florida State was a whiff, but again it wasn’t across the board. Clemson was pegged almost exactly, not only within a point of it’s actual score, but in terms of offense stats. Boyd was a little underrated with touchdowns, but, for instance, the sim pegged Ellington’s day both rushing and receiving. Where it swung and missed was the Seminole offense, most notably EJ Manuel. It didn’t see him putting up 482 total yards passing and running (it had him at nearly half that), and that was the difference between Florida State losing and winning with Clemson themselves scoring in the high 30’s.

The Kansas State upset of Oklahoma, however, was called by NCAA. Klein’s underperformance was made up for by Hubert, and both Jones’ passing and Williams’ rushing was within two yards. An overall solid pick.

Both myself and the sim had been high on Missouri, and this was the second time we were burned. What was predicted to be a poor effort from Franklin was even worse, and big days from Connor Shaw and Marcus Lattimore turned this into a Gamecock rout.

Finally, I don’t think anyone saw Michigan throwing five interceptions. The Wolverines dominated all facets of that game except the turnovers, and that was the difference.

Now on to this week’s games:

Tennessee @ #5 Georgia

Team    1st        2nd      3rd       4th       Final
TENN      7           7          3          6          23
UGA      14          3           0         14         31

Highlights

TENN:  T. Bray 18/32, 256 yds, 2 td, 2 int
R. Neal 15 car, 38 yds, 1 td
J. Hunter 7 rec, 123 yds

UGA:  A. Murray 17/26, 268 yds, 4 td
K. Malcolm 25 car, 79 yds
M. Bennett 4 rec, 49 yds, 2 td

A decent day from Bray was dragged down by the two picks, but the real story here was the Aaron Murray show and the Bulldog rush defense. Tennesse went absolutely nowhere on the ground, and a big fourth quarter from Murray propelled Georgia ahead for good. I like Georgia here, and wouldn’t be surprised if they held the Vols to even fewer points.

#25 Baylor @ #9 West Virginia

Team    1st        2nd      3rd       4th       Final
BAY        0          7          7          6          20
WVU        7         7          7          7          28

Highlights

BAY:    N. Florence 25/45, 315 yds, 0 td, 1 int
J. Salubi 18 car, 67 yds, 2 td; 5 rec, 34 yds
T. Williams 6 rec, 82 yds

WVU:    G. Smith 14/25, 248 yds, 3 td
S. Alston 21 car, 68 yds, 1 td
T. Austin 5 rec, 59 yds

Bayloy hangs around in Morgantown, but in the end reality comes calling. Despite a big day through the air, Florence can’t find the endzone, while on the other side of the field Smith led the Mountaineers with an efficient performance. Neither team got much of a ground game going in this battle of passing spreads. I like West Virginia to put up more than just 28 on a poor Baylor defense, but Baylor will score some points of its own, too.

#12 Texas @  Oklahoma State

Team    1st        2nd      3rd       4th       Final
TEX       14         14         0          20        38
OKST     0           7          3          15         25

Highlights

TEX:    D. Ash 24/36, 273 yds, 4 td
M. Brown 24 car, 76 yds
M. Davis 8 rec, 120 yds, 1 td

OKST:   W. Lunt 29/50, 374 yds, 2 td, 1 int
J. Randle 8 car, 45 yds, 1 td; 7 rec, 55 yds, 1 td
B. Jackson 7 rec, 98 yds

Texas travels into Stillwater trying to distance itself from poor Big XII play the last two seasons. NCAA says they make a statement. It’s anyone’s guess whether Lunt will be ready to come back from injury or if Walsh will play, but it didn’t appear to matter. Even with Lunt, the Cowboys couldn’t keep up. Ash had a big day through the air to keep Oklahoma State at bay. I like Texas to come out on top in this one, though I’m up in the air on whether this many points will be scored.

#14 Ohio State @ #20 Michigan State

Team    1st        2nd      3rd       4th       Final
OSU       3           0          0          14         17
MSU       0          10         3          11         24

Highlights

OSU:   B. Miller 18/39, 239 yds, 1 td, 1 int
J. Hall 21 car, 65 yds, 1 td
D. Smith 5 rec, 94 yds, 1 td

MSU:  A. Maxwell 17/30, 195 yds, 1 td, 1 int
L. Bell 26 car, 72 yds, 1 td; 3 rec, 28 yds
D. Sims 7 rec, 112 yds, 1 td

In a showdown of two teams that have been underwhelming of late, NCAA like the home Spartans to come out on top. Maxwell and Bell have mediocre days, but it’s enough to hold off Ohio State. I think Ohio State will get the win on the road, but with the way these teams have been playing lately, I could see either team losing.

Wisconsin @ #22 Nebraska

Team    1st        2nd      3rd       4th       Final
WISC       0         13          0         7          20
NEB         3          0         21        10         34

Highlights

WISC:   J. Stave 15/32, 232 yds, 2 td
M. Ball 26 car, 84 yds
J. Abbrederis 4 rec, 72 yds, 1 td

NEB:      T. Martinez 8/15, 91 yds, 1 td; 8 car, 92 yds, 1 td
R. Burkhead 24 car, 174 yds, 2 td
Q. Enunwa 3 rec, 40 yds, 1 td

After giving up a ten point halftime lead, Nebraska charged back to win comfortably in Lincoln. Although Martinez didn’t do much through the air, he and Burkhead combined for close to 300 yards rushing. On the other end, Stave played ok, but Ball was held out of the endzone again and Wisconsin didn’t have the firepower to keep up. With the way the Badgers have been playing, it’ll be entirely on the Cornhusker defense if Wisconin scores even 20 points. Nebraska will be looking for revenge for their Big Ten welcome last year in Madison, and I think they get it at home.

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  1. Pingback: New Content Added: Week of September 23rd « Before Visiting The Sportsbook

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