Simming the NCAA: Week 3-2012

By: legallymaize  

We’re back this year to provide NCAA simulations on some of the marquee or otherwise interesting games each week. Although certainly not gospel, this gives an alternative, seemingly neutral insight into how each game might go, simulating the game play through the Super Sim feature.   Last week’s picks started off great, calling UCLA’s upset over Nebraska. It was a little higher scoring than predicted, both teams’ rushing games were underrated and UCLA’s points came through the air, not the ground, but NCAA called the upset and I’ll take it. Martinez’s passing performance was nearly dead on.

The Notre Dame-Purdue game is interesting. Looking at the score, it could hardly have been more off, with ND pulling out a close one at the end instead of running away with the game. The simulated stats, however, were pretty close. The Boilermaker two-header monster at quarterback wasn’t simmed (Marve’s ACL will have that back to one in no time), but really the only significant overestimate was Golson’s touchdown total (even his yards were underestimated). To use the old phrase, that’s why you play these games…

The sim overestimated the score in the Aggies’ SEC debut, but did nail Florida pulling it out late. Driskel’s passing yardage was nearly to the yard, and again the scoring difference came from passing touchdowns that never materialized. Unfortunately, the kickoff return td didn’t come true either.

In contrast to the Nebraska game, their old Big XII North rival Kansas State provided by far the worst performance of the week. Similar to Notre Dame-Purdue, the stats listed weren’t that far off, although, as was a theme, passing touchdowns were hard to come by. Where the sim really went off the track was the depth of the Kansas State rushing attack, which accounted for six(!) touchdowns on the ground. Combined with Miami’s inability to put it into the endzone until late, this turned a Cane upset into hurricane Wildcat.

For the Wolverines, the sim was pretty accurate, but when it was off it was way off. It was pretty close on the performances of Dietz, McArthur and Robinson’s passing , and substituting Funchess for Roundtree receiving and Robinson for Toussaint rushing. Michigan’s score was dead on, with Toussaint’s and one of Robinson’s passing touchdowns instead going to Denard on the ground. The big miss was on Getz, who more than doubled his projected total, gashing the Wolverines again and again for three scores and keeping the Falcons in the game until the end.

Now on to this week’s games:

#2 USC @ #21 Stanford

Team    1st        2nd      3rd       4th       Final
USC       0          20         7          14         41
STAN     0          0          0           14         14


USC:  M. Barkley 17/28, 261 yds, 2 td
S. Redd 30 car, 136 yds, 3 td; 3 rec, 47 yds, 1 td
R. Woods 7 rec, 144 yds

STAN:   J. Nunes 12/25, 131 yds, 1 td, 1 int
S. Taylor 21 car, 103 yds
T. Montgomery 6 rec, 79 yds, 1 td

After a slow start, USC started rolling and never stopped. Stanford has gotten the best of USC the past few years, and is still ranked despite losing that coach and quarterback that brought them into the national championship picture. They’re still talented, but this game exposes the beginning of their decline. Instead of Barkley, Redd is the real MVP of the game, with four total touchdowns and nearly 200 all purpose yards. I agree, and like USC in a blowout. USC will likely lose a game they shouldn’t this year, but this won’t be it.

#20 Notre Dame @ #10 Michigan State

Team    1st        2nd      3rd       4th       Final
ND          3          0         0         10          13
MSU        3          3         6          0          12


ND:     E. Golson 21/49, 223 yds, 1 td, 3 int
T. Riddick 12 car, 61 yds
T. Jones 5 rec, 69 yds

MSU:    A. Maxwell 16/34, 222 yds, 0 td, 2 int
L. Bell 19 car, 88 yds
B. Fowler 4 rec, 92 yds

In a defensive battle, Sparty takes a nine point lead into the fourth but can’t hold on as the Irish kick a last second field goal for the second week in a row. Despite putting up decent yardage both passing attacks are interception fests, and  the game went three and a half quarters without a touchdown. The defenses held the rushing games in check all game long. I’m not convinced that Michigan State can get it done against a quality defense, and I can definitely see Notre Dame pulling the upset.

California @ #12 Ohio State

Team    1st        2nd      3rd       4th       Final
CAL        0          7          7          14        28
OSU       7          14         0          14        35


CAL:    Z. Maynard 19/37, 248 yds, 4 td
I. Sofele 13 car, 42 yds
K. Allen 6 rec, 93 yds

OSU:    B. Miller 20/38, 285 yds, 3 td
C. Hyde 28 car, 125 yds, 2 td
D. Smith 4 rec, 79 yds, 1 td

Cal comes into the Shoe and nearly pulls the upset on Ohio State. The fourth quarter turned into a shootout with the teams trading touchdowns, but the Buckeyes were able to pull it out. Both quarterbacks had huge days through the air, but the difference was Hyde’s rushing compared to Sofele. Honestly, I’m a little surprised by these numbers. If Cal can get anywhere near that kind of performance from Maynard I have to believe they win, because I just don’t see Ohio State keeping up. I think the more likely outcome is the Buckeys in a lower scoring affair.

# 18 Florida @ #23 Tennessee

Team    1st        2nd      3rd       4th       Final
FLA        0          10        7           7          24
TENN      7           0       10           0          17


FLA:    J. Driskel 13/21, 176 yds, 2 td, 2 int
M. Gillislee 28 car, 119 yds
J. Reed 3 rec, 61 yds

TENN:   T. Bray 15/33, 225 yds, 1 td, 1 int
R. Neal 15 car, 47 yds
J. Hunter 9 rec, 116 yds, 1 td

This is a back and forth game, with Florida getting the go ahead score in the fourth to pull out the win. While Bray has the better day through the air, the Florida ground game is the difference for the Gators. I think the game will be close, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s Tennessee, and not Florida, that pulls out the win at home.

North Carolina @ #19 Louisville

Team    1st        2nd      3rd       4th       Final
UNC        0         12          0         8          20
LOU        7          7           0         7          21


UNC:    B. Renner 15/30, 166 yds, 1 td
A. Blue 20 car, 82 yds, 2 td
E. Highsmith 3 rec, 40 yds, 1 td

LOU:    T. Bridgewater 20/38, 303 yds, 2 td, 1 int
J. Wright 14 car, 65 yds
A. Smith 7 rec, 107 yds, 2 td

Extra points-often overlooked but extremely important. After getting the touchdown that should tie the game at 7-7, North Carolina botched the extra point. After the Tarheel’s second touchdown, they elected to go for two to tie it up, and missed that as well. They finally got the two point conversion on their third touchdown, to trim the deficit to one, but couldn’t score again. The original missed extra point was the difference. Bridgewater had a big day through the air, but UNC kept it close. While the Heels might not pull off the upset on the road, I think they’ll at least be in it until the end.


One response

  1. Pingback: New Content Added: Week of September 9th « Before Visiting The Sportsbook

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s