MLB Winter Meetings 2011

*For more work by Zig-Zag, check out STRENGTH IN WRITING and A HERO’S JOURNEY*

MLB Winter Meetings 2011

The time has come and gone again for all the managers, general managers, and player agents to gather together and see what kind of deals can be worked out.  There are always big players that are looking to ease the rest of their offseason worries, and in recent years there have been plenty of surprise deals that no one could have seen coming before they happened.  The big one that still sticks out is the three-team trade in 2009 between the Tigers, Yankees, and Diamondbacks.  Every team in that trade got big time pieces that have made them better.  Ian Kennedy went to the Diamondbacks, and was instrumental in their NL West Championship in 2011.  Curtis Granderson went to the Yankees, and in just two short seasons has put up MVP numbers, including power that was barely seen in Detroit.  Detroit got Max Scherzer, Phil Coke, and Austin Jackson, three players that have be invaluable to the organization over the last two years.  So, there is always some big drama to come out of the meetings.  This year, there were no big trades, but four big signings (and a fifth, smaller signing that holds value for my team).  While all but one of these signings were actually inked after the meetings had ended, they were all worked out in that hotel in Dallas, behind doors that had unspeakable things happening behind them.  So let’s take a look at all five, and what their impacts are for their new clubs.

Jose Reyes – Miami Marlins

After the name and logo change got the Marlins fired up again, they decided it was time to make a big splash in the free agent market.  So they kicked things off by signing shortstop Jose Reyes to a six-year $106 million deal.  Not bad for the NL batting champ, especially because next to catcher, shortstop is probably the hardest position to play on the field.  The wear and tear on players’ knees at that position generally kills the careers of shortstops (or forces them to move to second or third base) rather quickly.  So the fact that Reyes could get locked in to that kind of contract now is spectacular for him.  The Marlins, on the other hand, better know what they’re doing.  We knew Reyes would be looking for a big contract, but $106M is a lot of money that the team could be kicking itself for down the road.  These big contracts always come with a significant amount of risk, and with all the changes that the Marlins are making to the organization in the coming season, it’s a little surprising that they wanted to take an even bigger risk.  (Although, they need to attract the fans in Miami, so a couple of big names could be just what they need.)

Mark Buehrle – Miami Marlins

The very next day, the Marlins also signed starter Mark Buehrle to a four-year $58 million contract.  This one was a little bit better of a risk, with a very high reward.  Buehrle is a very lethal starting pitcher, and always has been in the AL Central.  Now, many pitchers have trouble transitioning from the American League to the National League, and vice versa (just something about the way each league works that gives pitchers a little hiccup when they first make the jump).  But Buehrle is going into a unique situation that should allow him to transition much easier.  He’ll be playing for a manager that knows him better than anyone, and who can make sure that the jump is smooth and as seamless as possible.  After being let go towards the end of the regular season, Chicago White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen was brought into the Marlins’ organization as their new manager.  Guillen knows Buehrle, and Buehrle knows Guillen.  Which is probably a big reason why he signed with Miami.  (Well, that, and the $58M.)  It’s a good situation for both the team and the player, and it should benefit the Marlins well.  It also means that Buehrle is out of the AL Central, which means the White Sox just became even less intimidating as a team.  Remember, Minnesota: Chicago is slowly but surely falling apart.  You already fell apart, so now is the time to jump on them.

Note: While not one of the top free agents, the Marlins also added a star of a closer in Heath Bell.  This now means that on every fifth day a team in the NL could be unlucky enough to see Buehrle, Bell, and Reyes.  The chances of Miami winning the NL East or NL Wild Card have just improved significantly.  They’ll definitely be a contender now.

C.J. Wilson – Los Angeles Angels

In the wake of Buehrle’s deal, the other top free agent pitcher—C.J. Wilson—was given his own five-year $77.5 million.  This gives the Angels one of the best rotations in all of baseball now, with Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, Ervin Santana, and C.J. Wilson.  That rotation has the potential to out-duel anyone else there is (with the exception of maybe the Phillies’ rotation and Justin Verlander by himself).  I’m actually a little stunned that Wilson got the kind of deal he did, though.  Yes, he was good, and yes, he was definitely the ace of the Rangers’ staff this past season.  But that’s not saying much.  The pitchers behind him (Holland, Lewis, Harrison) weren’t all that great.  And just a year and a half ago, he was the obvious number two guy to Cliff Lee.  No one would have ever called him an “ace” then.  So why was he given a contract like an ace?  It’s only about $7.5M shy of the contract extension Jered Weaver was offered not too long ago.  I don’t quite understand the logic in the numbers, but in a year with very few good starters on the market, teams looking to really make power plays for their divisions and beyond had to do whatever necessary to get there.  Hopefully Wilson pans out for the Angels, but if nothing else at least they took him away from their division rivals, the Texas Rangers.

Albert Pujols – Los Angeles Angels

Fuck.  Albert Pujols has made the jump to the American League with a nice, fat 10-year $254 million contract to go with it.  The most feared hitter in the game is now playing in the AL West, where he should really have an easy time being the spearhead for an Angels’ ride to the playoffs in 2012.  Seattle and Oakland are too weak to stop him (especially now that Oakland has traded away Trevor Cahill and appears to at least be listening to offers on Gio Gonzalez).  Texas is strong and ever so pesky, but without a proven ace in the pitching staff, Pujols could pretty easily tear apart Holland, Lewis, and Harrison.  The Angels wanted to make a statement, and they sure made a big one.  Pujols was easily the top free agent this year, and wanted a major contract (which he certainly got).  He had a 10-year offer from the Marlins (good God, I can only imagine what would have happened in the NL East if they had scored Pujols, too, and I know they were also sporting offers to Wilson), and, depending on the source, either a nine-year or 10-year offer from the Cardinals.  But $254 million (with a full no-trade clause for its entirety) is certainly a sweet deal that no one with anything sort of like a right mind could pass up.

But the question remains: Will this deal come back to haunt the Angels?  They only other player in MLB history to get a deal worth more than $200M is Alex Rodriguez, which he has actually had twice (including his current deal with the Yankees).  Guaranteeing a guy $25.4M per year for the next decade certainly has its implications.  What if Pujols suffers from the same backslide as Adam Dunn did in 2011?  What if the Angels fail to adequately compete in their division, and can’t sign any more decent free agents due to the money they already have tied up?  What happens if the team needs to trade away some of their veteran and better players for no-name minor league players, just because they need to surround Pujols and his contract with about five or six other guys who only make the league minimum of $500,000?  This is a big commitment on the part of the Angels, and it only has the potential to go really well or really poorly.  Which will it be?  I think we’ll get a sense of how Pujols is adjusting by mid-May of this season.  The real question will be if he can stay healthy for a decade.  Odds are not in his favor, but I suppose we’ll have to wait and see.

The other question (which probably seems like a no brainer) is where Albert will be spending the majority of his playing time?  The rookie, Mark Trumbo, did an adequate job at first base for the Angels this year.  He was in Rod Allen’s Rookie of the Year talk from early on in the season.  If he really did such an adequate job (and really, 29 home runs from a rookie is more than anyone could ask for), then why are the Angels so quick to dump him as the first baseman?  Or maybe they’ll give him quite a bit of playing time there, and stick Pujols in at DH?  Pujols has spent his career in the NL, though, and I doubt that he’d want to suddenly spend all his time playing DH.  If you’re not mentally prepared for that sort of shift in role and responsibility, then it can really do a number on your performance.  Look at what happened to Adam Dunn in his first year with the White Sox.

Octavio Dotel – Detroit Tigers

Finally, the signing for the home team.  The Tigers brought Octavio Dotel into the organization on a one-year $3 million deal, with a club option of $3.5 million for 2013.  I vaguely remember Dotel when he played for the White Sox a few years back.  He seemed like an okay pitcher, but nothing special.  His career numbers suggest that, as well.  He’s bounced around a lot, which suggests that either he was never quite what any team was looking for long term, or he has always served as more of a situational pitcher that is easily replaceable after a year or two.  He had a very solid 2011 in the Cardinals’ bullpen, and was a big piece in their World Series win.  He’s being brought into the Tigers’ organization to serve as that setup bridge between the middle relief (or the starter) and the Benoit/Valverde tandem.  I still would have liked to see Joe Nathan, but I know money was an issue for the Tigers this offseason, and Nathan likely wanted to go somewhere he could be a closer.  That wasn’t happening in Detroit, and Texas was willing to shuffle around their current pieces to make it work.  (How Neftali Feliz will fare in the starting rotation should be interesting to see.  Expect Pujols to make him cry in his very first start.)  Dotel is a more than adequate addition, though.  He provides a veteran arm, he’s not eating up a lot of payroll, and if things don’t work out, he’s gone after this season.  With any luck, though, it will work out and the Tigers will have a strong bullpen for the seventh, eighth, and ninth innings.  I look forward to those days where Porcello and Scherzer throw six+ strong innings, Dotel comes in for a couple batters, then Benoit and Valverde shut down the game.

MLB Winter Meetings – Final Thoughts

            This year, it was all about the big name signings.  Four of the top free agents were taken off the market, leaving Prince Fielder as the last big agent to be signed.  It is, of course, too early to tell how any of these signings will play out.  But I think that for the most part they’ll work, especially the pitchers.  Wilson is staying in the same league, pitching against most of the same players.  Plus, he’ll be the number two or three starter in that rotation, so no pressure to be the ace.  Buehrle has a mentor and friend at the helm of his new team, and Ozzie will undoubtedly welcome his old ace with open arms.  The hitters are the bigger question marks, but Reyes will see all the same pitching over in the NL East, helping ease his transition.  The biggest question mark, in so many ways, is just Pujols.  I’m sure the eyes of the sports world will be on him for the next ten years.  This may also be L.A.’s chance to become the only team other than New York and Boston that’s discussed on ESPN.  In the meantime, I’ll await the day when the Tigers and Angels face off with Verlander and Weaver on the mound and Pujols and Cabrera at the dish.