Upset Watch: Bowl Week 2

Readers from last week will recall I was in Curacao. I visited Aruba, as well. If you ever get the chance to visit Aruba, do it. There are two casinos within walking distance of port, including one having a sportsbook, in Oranjestad (Seaport Casino).

For those of you keeping track, MAC teams are 2-0 in bowl games (Temple and Ohio University). Sun Belt teams are 1-0 (Louisiana-Lafayette). WAC teams are 0-1 (Utah State) and Mountain West teams are 0-2 (Wyoming and San Diego State). The Mountain West Conference should get off the schneid this week, with TCU and Boise State playing this week, two of their best teams.

During the regular season, the Upset Watch reviewed picks from the previous week, noted the bad picks, and pointed out a few games to give the underdog some credit in, even if it was only in Vegas. It also looked at one or two sure-fire favorites (two when Michigan wasn’t playing).

Because this is the bowl season (and our last hurrah for the 2011-2012 regular season), we’ll cover each of the bowl games, splitting them up by week.

Recap:

Wins

Temple (9-4) -6.0 Wyoming (8-5). Result: Temple 37 Wyoming 15.

 

Ohio University (10-4) +3.0 Utah State (7-6). Result: Ohio University 24 Utah State 23.

 

Losses

San Diego State (8-5) -4.5 Louisiana-Lafayette (8-5). Result: Louisiana-Lafayette 32 San Diego State 30.

This Week

Only three bowl games will take place between now and the next Upset Watch, which will be on December 20th (we’ll have six bowls on the next Watch). Temple earned an at-large selection to the New Mexico Bowl (since the PAC-12 didn’t fill their bowl allotment) to face the #4 selection from the Mountain West #4, Wyoming, on Saturday (2:00 PM EST/ESPN). The Idaho Bowl will pair Ohio University, the #3 selection from the MAC, against Utah State, the #2 selection from the WAC (5:30 PM EST/ESPN). The final game on Saturday is in New Orleans, with San Diego State, an at large selection since Conference USA did not fill their bowl allotment, against Louisiana-Lafayette, the top choice from the Sun Belt (9:00 PM EST/ESPN).

Upset Watch

Marshall (6-6) +5.0 Florida International (8-4) (@ St. Petersburg, FL). The Golden Panthers are 80th in total offense (70th rushing, 69th passing); Marshall is 101st (92nd rushing, 74th passing). Florida International is 33rd in total defense (23rd rushing, 64th passing); the Thundering Herd are 86th (61st rushing, 100th passing). These teams have not met before. Marshall is 6-2 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 4-1 ATS in last 5; 3-1 ATS underdog in last 5). Florida International is 1-0 all time in bowl games (0-0 ATS favorite). Marshall Coach Doc Holliday is 11-13 (11-12-1 ATS, 7-7-1 ATS as an underdog); Florida International Coach Mario Cristobal is 24-37 (31-30 ATS, 11-12 ATS as a favorite). Florida International is 3-5 ATS as a favorite this year (6-6 overall ATS); Marshall is 5-3 ATS as an underdog this year (7-5 overall ATS). Florida International’s last bowl game was the 2010 Little Caesars Bowl, a 34-32 win over Toledo; Marshall’s last bowl game was the 2009 Little Caesars Pizza Bowl, a 21-17 win over Ohio University. Take Marshall with the points.

TCU (10-2) -9.5 Louisiana Tech (8-4) (@ San Diego, CA). The Horned Frogs are 28th in total offense (20th rushing, 60th passing); Louisiana Tech is 50th (70th rushing, 45th passing). TCU is 32nd in total defense (29th rushing, 56th passing); the Bulldogs are 55th (25th rushing, 96th passing). These teams have not met before. TCU is 12-14-1 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 2-3 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Louisiana Tech is 2-2-1 all time in bowl games (2-1 ATS; 1-1 ATS as an underdog). TCU Coach Gary Patterson is 108-30 (70-58-5 ATS, 51-42-3 ATS favorite); Louisiana Tech Coach Sonny Dykes is 5-7 (5-7 ATS, 3-4 ATS underdog). TCU is 4-6-1 ATS as a favorite this year (5-6-1 overall ATS); Louisiana Tech is 6-0 ATS as an underdog this year (10-2 overall ATS). Louisiana Tech’s last bowl game was the 2008 Independence Bowl, a 17-10 win over Northern Illinois; TCU’s last bowl game was the 2010 Rose Bowl, a 21-19 win over Wisconsin. Take TCU to cover the points.

Boise State (11-1) -13.5 Arizona State (6-6) (@ Las Vegas, NV). The Sun Devils are 26th in total offense (78th rushing, 11th passing); Boise State is 9th (40th rushing, 10th passing). Arizona State is 88th in total defense (59th rushing, 107th passing); the Broncos are 16th (22nd rushing, 25th passing). Arizona State leads the series 1-0, with a 56-7 victory over Boise State in 1996. Boise State is 7-4 all time in bowl games (3-2 SU in last 5; 4-1 ATS in last 5; 1-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Arizona State is 12-11-1 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 2-2 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Arizona State Coach Dennis Erickson is 42-43 (41-37-2 ATS, 19-19-2 ATS underdog) since 2001; Boise State Coach Chris Petersen is 72-6 (43-31 ATS, 36-29 ATS favorite). Boise State is 4-8 ATS as a favorite this year (4-8 overall ATS); Arizona State is 3-7 ATS as an underdog this year (4-8 overall ATS). Arizona State’s last bowl game was the 2007 Holiday Bowl, a 52-34 loss to Texas; Boise State’s last bowl game was the 2010 Las Vegas Bowl, a 26-3 win over Utah. Take Boise State to cover the points.

Southern Miss (11-2) -5.5 Nevada (7-5) (@ Honolulu, HI). The Wolfpack are 5th in total offense (8th rushing, 30th passing); Southern Miss is 13th (23rd rushing, 73rd passing). Nevada is 52nd in total defense (56th rushing, 63rd passing); the Golden Eagles are 31st (20th rushing, 69th passing). Southern Miss leads the series 2-0, with a 55-28 victory over Nevada in 1998 and a 35-19 victory in 1997. Southern Miss is 9-10 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 3-2 ATS in last 5; 1-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Nevada is 4-7 all time in bowl games (1-4 SU in last 5; 1-4 ATS in last 5; 1-1 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Nevada Coach Chris Ault is 63-39 (61-48 ATS, 14-19 ATS underdog) since 2004; Southern Miss Coach Larry Fedora is 33-19 (27-23 ATS, 19-16 ATS favorite). Southern Miss 5-5 ATS as a favorite this year (8-5 overall ATS); Nevada is 2-1 ATS as an underdog this year (5-7 overall ATS). Southern Miss’s last bowl game was the 2010 Beef ‘O’ Brady Bowl, a 31-28 loss to Louisville; Nevada’s last bowl game was the 2010 Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, a 20-13 win over Boston College. Take Southern Miss to cover the points.

Missouri (7-5) -3.5 North Carolina (7-5) (@ Shreveport, LA). The Tigers are 12th in total offense (11th rushing, 57th passing); North Carolina is 52nd (72nd rushing, 43rd passing). Missouri is 61st in total defense (44th rushing, 91st passing); the Tar Heels are 40th (14th rushing, 90th passing). Missouri leads the series 2-0, with a 24-3 victory over North Carolina in 1976 and a 27-14 victory in 1973. Missouri is 12-16 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 1-3 ATS as a favorite in last 5). North Carolina is 13-15 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 3-2 ATS in last 5; 1-1 ATS as an underdog in last 5). North Carolina Coach Everett Withers is 7-5 (6-6 ATS, 1-2 ATS underdog); Missouri Coach Gary Pinkel is 84-54 (67-64-1 ATS, 35-35-1 ATS favorite) since 2001. Missouri is 2-4 ATS as a favorite this year (6-6 overall ATS); North Carolina is 1-2 ATS as an underdog this year (6-6 overall ATS). Missouri’s last bowl game was the 2010 Insight Bowl, a 27-24 loss to Iowa; North Carolina’s last bowl game was the 2010 Music City Bowl, a 30-27 2OT win over Tennessee. Take Missouri to cover the points.

Western Michigan (7-5) +2.5 Purdue (6-6) (@ Detroit, MI). The Broncos are 23rd in total offense (87th rushing, 8th passing); Purdue is 79th (39th rushing, 82nd passing). Western Michigan is 100th in total defense (107th rushing, 53rd passing); the Boilermakers are 69th (91st rushing, 38th passing). Purdue leads the series 2-0, with a 28-24 victory over Western Michigan in 2002 and a 28-13 victory in 1993. Purdue is 8-7 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 1-4 ATS in last 5; 0-3 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Western Michigan is 0-4 all time in bowl games (1-1 ATS; 1-1 ATS as an underdog). Western Michigan Coach Bill Cubit is 47-38 (38-40-3 ATS, 19-22-2 ATS underdog); Purdue Coach Danny Hope is 15-21 (15-19-2 ATS, 5-9-1 ATS favorite). Western Michigan is 3-2 ATS as an underdog this year (8-4 overall ATS); Purdue is 2-2-1 ATS as favorite this year (5-6-1 overall ATS). Western Michigan’s last bowl game was the 2008 Texas Bowl, a 38-14 loss to Rice; Purdue’s last bowl game was the 2007 Motor City Bowl, in Detroit, a 51-48 win over Central Michigan. Take Western Michigan to cover the points, and win.

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  1. Pingback: New Content Added: Week of December 18th « beforevisitingthesportsbook

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