Handicapping the Conferences: Week 5

We all have that friend who is a 1 to 5 handicap golfer. You know, the guy you can NEVER beat. Enter the handicap system in golf. It allows players of varying abilities to play against each other on a level playing field. What does the handicap system have to do with college football? Enter the point spreads for each college football game. Besides allowing sports bettors the opportunity to wager on games, a point spread allows for a comparison talent of each team. Maybe it only provides useful stats for betting purposes or for numbers guys, like myself, but it does provide a measure of comparison.

Besides the actual records of each time, I have included the record of the team against the spread (in the first column). I have also broken down the records for each team as a favorite and as an underdog. In the event a line was zero, I considered the home team to be a favorite. This review is limited to BCS conferences and the MAC.

Note: Stats referenced only include NCAA recognized games.

Big Ten

Team ATS Overall ATS Favorite ATS Dog   Record
Michigan 3-1 2-1 1-0 4-0
Iowa 2-2 2-2 0-0 3-1
Michigan State 2-2 2-1 0-1 3-1
Minnesota 2-2 1-2 1-0 1-3
Northwestern 1-2 0-2 1-0 2-1
Nebraska 1-3 1-3 0-0 4-0
Wisconsin 3-1 3-1 0-0 4-0
Illinois 2-2 2-2 0-0 4-0
Ohio 2-2 2-1 0-1 3-1
Indiana 2-2 1-2 1-0 1-3
Purdue 1-2 1-2 0-0 2-1
Penn State 0-4 0-3 0-1 3-1

Wisconsin has been impressive on the offensive side of the ball, averaging 48.5 points per game. North Carolina State transfer Russell Wilson (1,136 yards passing 75.8% completion 12 total TD), running backs James C. White (303 yards 6.7/carry and 3 TD) and Montee Ball (360 yards 5.7/carry and 10 total TD) have been instrumental in the Badgers success this season both on the field and those favoring the Badgers in the sportsbook.

Opening Line: @ Wisconsin -9.5 Nebraska.

Michigan’s scoring defense is greatly improved from this point last year. Through four games last year, the Wolverines averaged giving up 23 points. This year, the Wolverines have given up an average of 13.67 points (13th in all of NCAA); the Wolverines have also recovered 7 fumbles (tied for 6th in all of NCAA).

Opening Line: @ Michigan -20.5 Minnesota.

Penn State has struggled against the spread (and on the field, to some extent), due to the lack of a starting quarterback. Matt McGloin (421 passing yards 63% completion and 3 TD) and Rob Bolden (388 passing yards 46.5% completion, 1 TD and 3 INT) have split time at quarterback, causing uncertainty leading into the Big Ten schedule.

Opening Line: Penn State -17.5 @ Indiana.

SEC

Team ATS Overall ATS Favorite ATS Dog   Record
Florida 4-0 4-0 0-0 4-0
Vanderbilt 3-1 2-0 1-1 3-1
Georgia 2-1-1 2-0 0-1-1 2-2
Tennessee 1-1-1 1-0-1 0-1 2-1
South Carolina 1-2-1 1-2-1 0-0 4-0
Kentucky 1-3 1-2 0-1 2-2
Alabama 3-1 3-1 0-0 4-0
LSU 3-1 2-1 1-0 4-0
Arkansas 2-2 2-1 0-1 3-1
Auburn 1-3 0-2 1-1 3-1
Mississippi State 1-3 1-2 0-1 2-2
Ole Miss 1-3 0-2 1-1 1-3

Florida will have a better idea of their expectations for this year, facing two of the top three teams in the country the next two weeks. The Gators won by similar margins over Tennessee and Kentucky last year, before Alabama teed off on Florida, 31-6. Chris Rainey (625 total yards and 4 total TD) and Jeff Demps (320 rushing yards and 4 TD) have paced the Gators this year.

Opening Line: @ Florida +4.5 Alabama.

Big 12

Team ATS Overall ATS Favorite ATS Dog   Record
Baylor 3-0 2-0 1-0 3-0
Oklahoma State 3-1 2-1 1-0 4-0
Missouri 3-1 1-1 2-0 2-2
Iowa State 2-1 0-1 2-0 3-0
Kansas State 2-1 1-1 1-0 3-0
Oklahoma 2-1 2-1 0-0 3-0
Texas 2-1 2-1 0-0 3-0
Texas Tech 2-1 2-1 0-0 3-0
Kansas 2-1 1-0 1-1 2-1
Texas A&M 1-2 1-2 0-0 2-1

Baylor’s struggles on defense have continued, having given up 31 to Rice and 48 to TCU (in a first career start for Casey Paschall). With that said, through a comparable schedule through this point last year, Baylor averaged 26 points per game. The Bears are averaging 51.33 points per game this year. Robert Griffin III was 55/99 (55.55%) 703 passing 107 rushing and 5 total TD through this point in 2010. Compare that to 70/82 (85.4%) 962 passing 167 rushing and 14 total TD. RG III’s play will determine the ceiling for Baylor’s success, this year.

Opening Line: Baylor -3.5 @ Kansas State.

ACC

Team ATS Overall ATS Favorite ATS Dog   Record
Wake Forest 2-0-1 1-0 1-0-1 2-1
Clemson 3-1 3-1 0-0 4-0
Maryland 1-2 1-2 0-0 1-2
Florida State 1-3 1-1 0-2 2-2
Boston College 1-3 1-2 0-1 1-2
North Carolina St. 0-4 0-3 0-1 2-2
Georgia Tech 4-0 4-0 0-0 4-0
Duke 2-2 1-1 1-1 2-2
North Carolina 2-2 2-1 0-1 2-2
Miami (FL) 1-2 1-1 0-1 1-2
Virginia Tech 1-3 1-3 0-0 4-0
Virginia 1-3 1-2 0-1 2-2

Georgia Tech’s number two rushing offense has spurred the Yellow Jackets to success on the field and for those favoring the Ramblin’ Wreck. Through four games last year, Georgia Tech averaged 240.5 yards on the ground; this year, the Yellow Jackets have averaged 398.75 yards on the ground this year, leading to a 22 point scoring average increase from this year, as compared with last year.

Opening Line: Georgia Tech -12.0 @ North Carolina State.

North Carolina State has played two FCS opponents and failed to cover against either of them. The Wolfpack are adjusting to life without Russell Wilson, who led the team to 9 wins, last season, the most since 2002. The Wolfpack defense has averaged giving up 408 yards, placing them at 11th in total defense in the ACC.

Opening Line: @ North Carolina State +12.0 @ Georgia Tech.

PAC-12

Team ATS Overall ATS Favorite ATS Dog   Record
Stanford 3-0 3-0 0-0 3-0
Washington 3-1 1-1 2-0 3-1
Washington State 2-1 2-0 0-1 2-1
Oregon 2-2 2-2 0-0 3-1
California 2-2 2-2 0-0 3-1
Oregon State 0-3 0-2 0-1 0-3
USC 2-2 2-1 0-1 3-1
Colorado 2-2 1-0 1-2 1-3
Utah 1-2 0-1 1-1 2-1
Arizona State 1-3 1-2 0-1 3-1
UCLA 1-3 0-1 1-2 2-2
Arizona 1-3 1-0 0-3 1-3

Stanford picked up right where they left off last year, starting off 3-0 on the field (last year, the Cardinal were 2-1 ATS, failing to cover against Sacramento State). The Cardinal are 18th in total offense, averaging 481 yards per game, largely behind the arm of Andrew Luck (786 passing 67.1% completion and 9 total TD) and the legs of Stepfan Taylor (289 rushing 5.4/carry and 2 TD).

Opening Line: @ Stanford -21.5 UCLA.

Oregon State’s nightmare-ish season continued this past week, with a loss at home to UCLA. A quarterback controversy is in full-swing in Corvallis, and the Beavers are looking to replace Jacquizz Rodgers and hoping to get his brother, James Rodgers, healthy. Losing the twins explains the drop in points per game from 26.67 in the first three games in 2010 to 15.67 so far in 2011.

Opening Line: Oregon State +17.0 @ Arizona State.

Big East

Team ATS Overall ATS Favorite ATS Dog   Record
Rutgers 3-0 2-0 1-0 2-1
South Florida 3-1 2-1 1-0 4-0
Cincinnati 3-1 3-0 0-1 3-1
Syracuse 1-2-1 1-1-1 0-1 3-1
Louisville 1-2 0-2 1-0 2-1
West Virginia 1-3 0-2 1-1 3-1
Connecticut 1-3 1-2 0-1 2-2
Pittsburgh 1-3 0-2 1-1 2-2

Rutgers has put together a nice start to the season with a quality win over MAC-East favorite Ohio University and almost knocking off North Carolina in Chapel Hill. The last time the Scarlet Knights started off 3-0 ATS was 2006, when they went 10-3 ATS (11-2 straight up). Mohamed Sanu (363 receiving 10.1/catch and 4 TD) has led the Rutgers offense. Rutgers and Sanu will have their work cut out for them this week, as they have lost to the Orange the past two years, and failed to cover ATS both times.

Opening Line: Rutgers +3.0 @ Syracuse.

MAC

 

Team ATS Overall ATS Favorite ATS Dog   Record
Western Michigan 3-1 2-0 1-1 2-2
Eastern Michigan 3-1 1-1 2-0 2-2
Ball State 2-2 0-1 2-1 3-1
Toledo 2-2 1-0 1-2 1-3
Northern Illinois 1-3 1-2 0-1 2-2
Central Michigan 0-4 0-1 0-3 1-3
Temple 4-0 2-0 2-0 3-1
Bowling Green 3-1 1-1 2-0 3-1
Buffalo 3-1 1-0 2-1 1-3
Ohio Univ. 2-2 2-1 0-1 3-1
Miami (OH) 1-2 0-1 1-1 0-3
Akron 1-3 1-0 0-3 1-3
Kent State 0-4 0-2 0-2 1-3

 

Temple was one play away from knocking off Penn State for the first time since 1941! Despite the 14-10 loss, Temple knocked off Maryland in College Park this past weekend, in impressive fashion. RB Bernard Pierce (496 rushing 5.7/carry and 12 TD) has led the Owls on offense. The Temple defense has been equally impressive, ranking 15th in total defense, giving up only 273 yards per game (rushing, 12th, 75.25/game; passing, 38th, 197.75/game).

Opening Line: @ Temple -7.0 Toledo.

Central Michigan has fallen apart the past two games. After leading Kentucky at half 13-6 in week 2, the Chips have been outscored 110-21, only outscoring Western Michigan in the fourth quarter in week 3, 7-6. Central Michigan ranks 114th in total offense, with 278.25 yards/game (rushing, 108th, 86/game; passing, 53rd, 207.75/game).

Opening Line: @ Central Michigan +10.0 Northern Illinois.

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  1. Pingback: Before Visiting The Sportsbook - New Content Added: Week 6

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