Simming the NCAA: Week 6

This week I simulated five of the top matchups talking place on Saturday, using NCAA 12 and the Super Sim function. Although certainly not gospel, this gives an alternative, seemingly neutral insight into how each game might go, simulating the game play for play. The following are the results of the simulations, along with some thoughts on the outcomes.

#3 Oklahoma vs. #11 Texas

Team    1st        2nd      3rd       4th       Final
OU         0          7          10        6          23
TX          3          7           0         7          17

Highlights

OU:      L. Jones 25/43, 351 yds, 1 td, 1 int
D. Whaley 14 car, 61 yds, 1 td
R. Broyles 12 rec, 170 yds, 1 td

TX:       C. McCoy 21/43, 246 yds, 1 td, 3 int
F. Whittaker 21 car, 68 yds, 1 td
M. Davis 6 rec, 89 yds

I’m a little surprised by how close this game was, and that Texas took leads into both the 2nd quarter and halftime. Landry Jones had a monster day with respect to everything except touchdown passes, tossing only one, with Broyles easily his main target. Both teams had a great deal of trouble running the ball, with the majority of yardage coming in the passing game. In the end, the simulation confirmed my belief that Oklahoma will win this matchup.

Missouri @ #20 Kansas State

Team    1st        2nd      3rd       4th       Final
MIZZ       7          14        0          0          21
KSU       0           7         7         10         24

Highlights

MIZZ:    J. Franklin 16/31, 272 yds, 2 td
K. Lawrence 11 car, 35 yds; 2 rec, 65 yds, 1 td
J. Jackson 5 rec, 110 yds

KSU:    C. Klein 16/25, 227 yds, 2 td; 8 car, 21 yds
A. Pease 32 car, 119 yds
T. Thompson 7 rec, 103 yds, 1 td

After giving up a defensive touchdown and trailing by 14 at the half, Kansas State mounted a second half rally—including 10 points in the fourth quarter—to knock off Missouri at home. While I’m surprised that KSU got the win in the simulation—I picked Missouri—I’m also surprised that Franklin was held relatively in check with only 272 yards (albeit with two touchdowns). NCAA 12 definitely gives more respect to the Kansas State defense than I do.

#15 Auburn @ #10 Arkansas

Team    1st        2nd      3rd       4th       Final
AUB      14         7          0          0          21
ARK       7          0         14         7          28

Highlights

AUB:    B. Trotter 11/24, 124 yds
M. Dyer 25 car, 150 yds, 3 td; 3 rec 46 yds
T. Stallworth 3 rec, 34 yds

ARK:    T. Wilson 17/29, 243 yds, 2 td
R. Wingo 24 car, 108 yds, 2 td
C. Hamilton 2 rec, 82 yds, 1 td

Like with the Missouri game before it, I was surprised with how Wilson was kept in check. I’m also surprised by the low number of throws; maybe it’s a simulation issue? At any rate, it’s something I’ll have to look into for next week. Auburn jumped out to a big first half lead behind the running of Michael Dyer, but Auburn didn’t score after halftime and that lead couldn’t hold up. For the second straight week, Arkansas got a big second half rally behind the passing of Wilson. The above comments aside, I’m not at all surprised by a close Arkansas win.

#17 Florida @ #1 LSU

Team    1st        2nd      3rd       4th       Final
FLA        0           0          0         6          6
LSU        0          10        14        7          31

Highlights

FLA:     J. Driskel 14/29, 209 yds, 1 int
C. Rainey 29 car, 117 yds, 1 td
D. Thompson 4 rec, 72 yds

LSU:     J. Lee 24/39, 323 yds, 2 td, 1 int
S. Ware 25 car, 93 yds, 1 td; 3 rec, 25 yds, 1 td
J. Wright 6 rec, 120 yds, 1 td

Florida gained a surprising number of yards (340) on the LSU defense, but couldn’t make it count, getting shut out for three-plus quarters before Chris Rainey finally got the Gators on the board in garbage time. Jarrett Lee responded, “what quarterback controversy?” to questions about Jordan Jefferson, teeing off on the Gator D. I’m a little surprised at the passing numbers here; they’re higher than expected for both quarterbacks, and I’m not quite sure which is the more surprising, Driskel putting up over 200 yards in his first start or Lee putting up over 300…ever. Especially considering what happened with Missouri and Arkansas with lower than expected passing numbers. At any rate, this result—especially with Brantley out—doesn’t surprise me in the least.

#12 Michigan @ Northwestern

Team    1st        2nd      3rd       4th       Final
MICH      0          14        7          10        31
NW       10           7         6           6        29

Highlights

MICH:   D. Robinson 24/33, 297 yds, 2 td; 6 car, 12 yds
F. Toussaint 26 car, 121 yds, 2 td;
R. Roundtree 7 rec, 83 yds, 1 td

NU:      D. Persa 20/28, 276 yds, 2 td; 6 car, 10 yds, 1 td
A. Smith 18 car, 71 yds, 1 td
D. Fields 5 rec, 90 yds

Michigan played its first away game in the, erm, friendly (?) confines of Ryan Field. After getting off to a slow start reminiscent of the first few games of the year, the Wolverines got it together, but Northwestern kept it close and came within a missed two-point conversion attempt of tying the game with 55 seconds left. Although Persa is definitely a good quarterback, I’m not quite sure what his health will be like, and I do think the Michigan D will keep the Wildcats under the simulated 29 points. And to knit-pick with the simulation, I think some of the run distribution between Toussaint and Robinson is off. While Toussaint may very well lead the team in rushing (especially if the Wolverine passing game takes off to around the simulated 300 yards), Denard has to get more than 6 carries for 12 yards, doubly so if they’re down early.

One response

  1. Pingback: Before Visiting The Sportsbook - New Content Added: Week 6

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