#2 Alabama (11-1) (7-1 SEC) vs. #1 LSU (13-0) (8-0 SEC) – Louisiana Superdome
Where to find the game: Monday, January 9th at 8:30 PM EST on ESPN/ESPN 3D/ESPN3.
LSU: Offense 75th (Rushing 17th; Passing 105th); Defense 2nd (Rushing 3rd; Passing 8th).
Alabama: Offense 30th (Rushing 15th; Passing 72nd); Defense 1st (Rushing 1st; Passing 1st).
When the line opened for the BCS National Championship game, LSU was a 2.5-point favorite. Now, the line is Alabama as a 2.5-point favorite. Two out of every three bets placed are being placed on LSU, currently; but the spread hasn’t moved. Keep in mind, Vegas is giving LSU 2 points, already included in the current line, due to their expected presence at the game (70-75% of the fans are expected to be LSU fans).
Really, what Vegas is telling you is that the expect Alabama to be 4.5-points better than LSU on a neutral field. Vegas expects Alabama to win this one, despite what the bettors and non-bettors feel.
Vegas has the over/under at 40, down from 41.5. Logic says to not expect another 9-6 game.
Alabama is 8-4 ATS (8-4 ATS as a favorite) on the year. LSU is 10-3 ATS (2-0 ATS as an underdog) on the year.
We like the over in this one, but we’ll stay away from the point spread. If we were forced to take a team ATS, we’d take Alabama.